https://write.tchncs.de/@/Ariadne/atom.xml2023-01-01T17:56:04.609622+00:00<![CDATA[First Human Encounter on New Year's Morning 2023: The Fireworks Idiot]]>https://write.tchncs.de/~/BerSchreiben/First%20Human%20Encounter%20on%20New%20Year's%20Morning%202023:%20The%20Fireworks%20Idiot/2023-01-01T17:56:04.609622+00:00https://write.tchncs.de/@/Ariadne/2023-01-01T17:56:04.609622+00:00<![CDATA[<p dir="auto">My first encounter with a human in 2023 was not a pleasant one. New Year’s morning dawned grey and foggy – so foggy I could not even see the little slice of the Danube I can usually see – and utterly quiet. It is never this way. I live in a metropolis, and a broad boulevard, the main route to all points west, separates my building from the high rent buildings along the riverbank. This boulevard provides a daily opportunity to play a real-life version of Crossy Road (six automobile lanes, one bus lane, two tram tracks), but otherwise it serves up unremitting noise pollution. Not this morning. I went out on to my balcony (fourth floor), served the crows, pigeons, and sparrows their breakfast (this is always the seating order), sat down with my cup of coffee (and I reluctantly admit, my cigarette), and there was – no sound at all. Nothing. No tram, no car, no ambulance screaming is way to the hospital a few blocks away. Complete silence. Not even the crows were calling.</p>
<p dir="auto">And then: BLAM! I jumped from my chair. Not figuratively, literally. I either yelled out “Scheiße!” or “Fuck!”; I can’t recall which. What I do remember is catching sight of an electric blue flash from the sidewalk across the boulevard, perhaps 50 meters distant by line of sight. And then I saw him, the penultimate yet causal source of the blast. Black trousers, black coat, black stocking cap. If not for the blast, he would have been so well camouflaged in the grey light and fog, I doubt I would have noticed him. Once I did spot him, though, he proved a thoroughly easy target to follow. He walked slowly, very slowly, and deliberately, very deliberately, with an odd, and oddly resolute gait. Of course: it was the Drunk Walk. I must say he demonstrated model technique. If there were Youtube instructional videos on how to properly do the Drunk Walk (I shudder at the thought that there probably are), his would, hands down, be at the pinnacle.</p>
<p dir="auto">For as long as I could watch him – which was far longer than it ought to have been – his head remained erect, his back – was admittedly at a slightly odd angle, but the angle never varied – and his feet metronomically led the way – they did project themselves a little too far ahead of his torso, but always extended precisely the same distance with each determined step. And sure enough, just before he was eclipsed from view by an intervening building – BLAM! The bastard did it again. This time I saw him do it. He ignited and tossed his explosive (it was far too powerful to call it a firecracker, and firework sounds pretty, which this was not) without breaking step, and with nary a movement. Pure conservation of energy. I swear he did not even cast an eye down to light the thing. Perfect execution.</p>
<p dir="auto">The pathetic fool moved out of view, I had just begun to regroup, when – BLAM! (or rather, Blam!) Not as loud as before, but loud enough. More remarkable: the three blasts seemed evenly spaced in time, uncannily so. I was wearing my sports watch, I started the stopwatch, and 42 seconds later, blam! The next, and what would be the final blast, came 46 seconds after that. Not perfectly timed after all, but damn good, all things considered. I’ve no idea if the guy ran out of fireworks, if he sat down on a park bench for a nap, or if he simply didn’t fancy his form of performance art anymore. And truly, I don’t care.</p>
<p dir="auto">Does this bloke encapsulate all that is wrong about patriarchy and capitalism? Is he both perpetrator and victim? Does he uphold the very system that exploits him? Does he even know he is oppressed? I’ve no idea. But what haunts me is how nondescript, how average he looked. Apart from his astounding Drunk Walk, absolutely nothing remarkable about him. It’s not that this guy was or is “everyman”, or anything like that. Doing what he did this morning, he an asshole. Whether he is always an asshole, or just early on New Year’s morning, it doesn’t matter in the least. But he was so nondescript, so mechanical, he seemed so aloof … was Mr. Explosive Launching Drunk Walk Man actually a harbinger of 2023? I mean, he was the first human I encountered this year – or was he the first human I encountered this year?</p>
<p dir="auto">It’s been dark now for a good three hours now, the traffic is normal for a Sunday evening, and three ambulances blasted by while I’ve been writing this, which in truth were far louder and more penetrating than his explosives ever were. But still, if Mr. Explosive (for short) really was an omen, an augury, a portent, a foretoken of 2023 – well then, we are well and truly fucked.</p>
<p dir="auto"><a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Essay" title="Essay" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Essay</a> <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/NonFiction" title="NonFiction" rel="noopener noreferrer">#NonFiction</a> <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Writing" title="Writing" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Writing</a> <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/WritingLife" title="WritingLife" rel="noopener noreferrer">#WritingLife</a> <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/WritersLife" title="WritersLife" rel="noopener noreferrer">#WritersLife</a> <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Schreiben" title="Schreiben" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Schreiben</a> <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/AmWriting" title="AmWriting" rel="noopener noreferrer">#AmWriting</a> <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/NewYears2023" title="NewYears2023" rel="noopener noreferrer">#NewYears2023</a></p>
]]><![CDATA[LIKELY ESCALATION OF THE RUSSIAN WAR ON UKRAINE – MID-DECEMBER 2022 THROUGH MID-JANUARY 2023]]>https://write.tchncs.de/~/Predictions/LIKELY%20ESCALATION%20OF%20THE%20RUSSIAN%20WAR%20ON%20UKRAINE%20–%20MID-DECEMBER%202022%20THROUGH%20MID-JANUARY%202023/2022-12-11T18:29:24.496339+00:00https://write.tchncs.de/@/Ariadne/2022-12-11T18:29:24.496339+00:00<![CDATA[<p dir="auto">DISCLAIMER No. 1: Future events are never certainties, they are only ever probabilities. The universe (or more accurately, all the universes that comprise the multiverse) is quantum physical by nature, not deterministic. No matter what anyone tells you, no prediction can ever be 100% certain.</p>
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Nevertheless, certain events or series of events have a higher probability of occurring than others. And from a risk analysis standpoint, such as described by the simple formula
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Risk = (Probability of Occurrence) × (Severity of Occurrence)
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It is important to consider, to be prepared for, and to plan for serious risk events, i.e. events which have a relatively low probability of occurring, but whose impact would be severe if they do occur.
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<p dir="auto">DISCLAIMER No. 2: Let me state categorically I have no inside information on this whatsoever. I keep myself abreast of the Russian war on <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Ukraine" title="Ukraine" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Ukraine</a> on a daily basis, via the media and social media, and that’s it. I may know more than the average Westerner about the historical relationship between Ukraine and <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Russia" title="Russia" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Russia</a>, I am acquainted with a few Ukrainians and Russians (the latter of whom are entirely against the war and do not live in Russia), but I have no inside information, I am no kind of hacker, I am not even on Telegram. What I am making is truly “only” a clairvoyant/psychic prediction, based on my gut feelings, and images and impressions which have made their way into my conscious self, informed by what I do know about geography, geopolitics, and military history and science. And I’m sure the Russians, Ukrainians, and <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/NATO" title="NATO" rel="noopener noreferrer">#NATO</a> have already envisioned a scenario much like this, so I’m not concerned I’m giving anyone any ideas.</p>
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<p dir="auto"><i>Wait – did you just say psychic? Clairvoyant? Are you crazy?</i> – I’ve posted about my ability/affliction to foresee events in the near future. This has happened to me sporadically and unpredictably me throughout my life. (You can read about it in my blog post here.) Unfortunately I have a good track record. I say unfortunately because I have never foreseen any good event or events, only bad ones (fall of the Berlin Wall? Nope, missed that completely). I guess I am doomed to be a glass-half-full, water-level-going-down kind of person when it comes to this. According to psychological testing, I am not crazy.</p>
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<p dir="auto"><i>Can you put me in touch with my Aunt Adelaide? I do miss her so.</i> – If she is on the internet, or has a postal address, I’d be happy to. If you mean she’s dead, sorry, I can’t. Nobody can. Because she’s dead.</p>
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<p dir="auto"><i>You mean you’re not a member of some strange New Age-y religious sect?</i> No, I’m an atheist.</p>
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<p dir="auto"><i>Will we have a white Christmas?</i> – Unless you live in northern Scandinavia, probably not. I’m a glass-half-empty kind of psychic, and I study anthropogenic climate destruction, remember. Irving Berlin wrote that song poolside, basking in the sun, by the way.</p>
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<p dir="auto"><i>What is the likelihood that any of this will happen?</i> – When this whole scenario first hit me on the evening of 03. December, it had to be quite high, something like 90%. Then I feel the probability dropped throughout last week, which is why I posted nothing about it. But yesterday (10. December) it felt like it was really likely again, up around 85%. This morning, I felt it was down again, maybe 65%, but as of this writing (11. December, 18:00 UTC) I feel it is back up to 70% and climbing again. And if it doesn’t happen on this timetable, it very well could, quite soon.</p>
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<p dir="auto"><i>And what if none of this happens?</i> – I absolutely 100% hope I am wrong and come out looking overly alarmist, pessimistic, and rather silly. But then, I also hope this is the case when it comes to what I foresee about the human-caused climate disaster, species extinction, and habitat destruction.</p>
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<p dir="auto"><i>Alright, I suppose it’s time you got on with it.</i></p>
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<p dir="auto">The events from mid-December 2022 through mid-January 2023
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<p dir="auto">Event 1 – Russian “false flag” attack in southeastern Ukraine, most likely <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Melitopol" title="Melitopol" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Melitopol</a></p>
<p dir="auto"><i>When?</i> – as soon as 13. December 2022, no later than 22. December 2022</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>What?</i> – most likely a kind of “dirty bomb”, consisting of radioactive material, and probably chemical warfare agents as well</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>How?</i> – easy. The Russians have occupied Melitopol since March 2022. They plant the weapon themselves.</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>Won’t Russian troops and collaborators be killed or injured?</i> – of course. That’s the point of a false flag operation.</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>Why?</i> - To serve as a pretext for carrying out Event 2 and Event 3.</p>
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<p dir="auto">Event 2: Massive conventional Russian attacks on <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Kharkiv" title="Kharkiv" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Kharkiv</a>, and (to a lesser extent) <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Kherson" title="Kherson" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Kherson</a></p>
<p dir="auto"><i>When?</i> – more or less immediately after Event 1 (+12 hours to +24 hours)</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>What?</i> – a combination of conventional weapons, including missiles, drones, and artillery</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>How?</i> – no problem, these locations are in easy reach of Russian forces</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>Why?</i> – a maskirovka (screen, deception, cover) to conceal Event 3, the “main event”</p>
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<p dir="auto">Event 3: Russian tactical nuclear attack on far northwestern Ukraine, most likely <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Lutsk" title="Lutsk" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Lutsk</a></p>
<p dir="auto"><i>When?</i> – 1 to 2 days after Event 2</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>What?</i> – tactical nuclear weapon(s) attack</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>How?</i> – most likely one to three air-launched (MiG-31 or Tu-95?) hypersonic missiles, capable of Mach 5 – Mach 10 airspeeds</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>Why?</i> – Vladimir Putin is getting desperate. There have already been massive Russian casualties in their war on Ukraine; according to Ukrainian estimates and the BBC, Russia has already lost 100,000+ troops in the war. Putin feels backed into a corner. He sees escalation as his only option to reinforce his power and reputation within Russia. He wants to draw NATO into the conflict, but make it appear he had no choice in the matter. This also has the added “benefit” of breaking the “nuclear taboo”, and ostensibly will provide his generals with more options on the battlefield. Hitting far northwestern Ukraine would be a figurative shot over NATOs bow. And Putin would love to ruin Christmas and New Years (Orthodox Christmas is 07. January, so he wouldn’t be ruining that.) On top of all this, Putin is ill, probably very, terminally ill, and sees himself as having nothing to lose.</p>
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<p dir="auto">Event 4: Ukrainian attack on <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Ulyanovsk" title="Ulyanovsk" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Ulyanovsk</a></p>
<p dir="auto"><i>When?</i> – 0.5 to 1 day after Event 3</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>What?</i> – this is really hard to say. My gut says a single tactical nuclear weapon, but Ukraine is not supposed to have these.</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>How?</i> – Good question. Perhaps a system the Ukrainians have built themselves (more likely), or purchased somewhere (less likely). The Ukrainian strikes inside Russia earlier this month may have been testing such a system or systems.</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>Why?</i> – Retaliation for the Russian strike on Lutsk. The most likely target is the 31st Air Assault Brigade base in the northern part of the city.</p>
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<p dir="auto">Event 5: Russian tactical nuclear attack on <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Lithuania" title="Lithuania" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Lithuania</a> or <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Latvia" title="Latvia" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Latvia</a> (probably on a NATO facility)</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>When?</i> – 2 to 3 days after Event 4</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>What?</i> – tactical nuclear weapon attack</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>How?</i> – same as Event 3</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>Why?</i> – Putin will claim Ukraine’s attack on Ulyanovsk (Event 4) was done with technology, intelligence, and weaponry supplied by NATO, thus NATO has de facto already declared war on Russia.</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>Did NATO really supply Ukraine with the technology to attack Ulyanovsk?</i> – No. But that won’t matter.</p>
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<p dir="auto">Event 6: NATO conventional attack on Kaliningrad</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>When?</i> – 4 to 7 days after Event 5, but the timeframe is pretty fuzzy</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>What?</i> – massive conventional strikes on Russian military facilities in Kaliningrad</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>How?</i> – combined air and naval forces</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>Why?</i> – NATO fulfills the obligation of its charter, i.e. an attack on any member state is an attack on all of NATO, and still avoids ratcheting up the conflict to a level no one wants to go to.</p>
<p dir="auto"><i>What happens next?</i> – I have no idea.</p>
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<p dir="auto"><i>What is a “false flag” attack?</i></p>
<p dir="auto">It’s when you attack your own forces or people and claim your enemy did it. You do this to start a war you want to start, or escalate a war you want to escalate. One infamous false flag attack was the destruction of the battleship Maine in Havana harbour which precipitated the Spanish-American War (1898), and in which 260 sailors were killed. (The USS Maine was an aging, essentially obsolete vessel when the attack occurred.) The United States blamed Spain, blanketed the media with propaganda, and the war began. The Spanish wanted to avoid war with the United States at all costs. There was no benefit for them to carry out such an attack. The beneficiaries of the war were Wall Street and wealthy Cuban families. The Gulf of Tonkin “incident” (1964), in which North Vietnamese torpedo boats supposedly attacked the American reconnaissance vessel (destroyer) USS Maddox, was not really a false flag attack, because the incident never actually happened at all. Still, it provided the pretext for the US to enter the Vietnam war (or rather take it over from the French). Likewise, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (1941) was not a false flag attack, because the Japanese really did attack. But the US knew at least two weeks, and probably much earlier, that the attack was going to happen (they were reading all of the Japanese message traffic). This is why all of the US aircraft carriers, and other modern ships were safely away when the attack happened, and only aging, soon-to-be mothballed ships were left behind. Nonetheless, the American government felt it was necessary to allow the attack to happen, in order to bring the US into the war on the side of the British. Over 2000 American lives were “sacrificed for the greater good”. No doubt, Putin would see a Russian false flag attack in the same light.</p>
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<p dir="auto">Some Details</p>
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<p dir="auto">Event 1: Russian “false flag” attack in southeastern Ukraine, most likely <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Melitopol" title="Melitopol" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Melitopol</a>, in <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Zaporizhzia" title="Zaporizhzia" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Zaporizhzia</a> Oblast. The weapon most likely will be a kind of “dirty bomb”, consisting of radioactive material, and probably chemical warfare agents as well. Note that a “dirty bomb” is not a nuclear weapon, but rather a weapon containing radioactive and possibly other material that is a “radiological dispersal device” that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives. (I have not read about such a device designed to contain chemical warfare agents, but I have not researched the topic very much, either. Still, I have the feeling it will, in order to make it even “dirtier”.)</p>
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<p dir="auto">My very first impression was 18. December 2022, next most likely date 22. December, with an outside chance of 17. December. As of yesterday, I’ve had a stronger feeling it could be as soon as 14. December, maybe even very late on 13. December. The uncertainty arises because it is dependent on wind and weather conditions, i.e. it would have to happen on a day with easterly winds (perhaps southeasterly) in the lower and 500 mB levels of the atmosphere, to ensure fallout and contamination only spreads in Ukrainian territory. It would not happen when the weather is rainy or snowy and/or when a low pressure system is moving through the area. This is to ensure that contamination does not settle only in the immediate area of the detonation, and also to ensure it spreads further into Ukraine as much as possible.</p>
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<p dir="auto">Event 2: Massive conventional attack by Russia on <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Kharkiv" title="Kharkiv" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Kharkiv</a> (northeast Ukraine), and to a lesser extent <a href="https://write.tchncs.de/tag/Kherson" title="Kherson" rel="noopener noreferrer">#Kherson</a> (southeast Ukraine), in “retaliation” for Event 1. This will follow Event 1 more or less immediately.</p>
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<p dir="auto">Event 3: Russian missile attack on far northwestern Ukraine, most likely Lutsk, Volyn Oblast. The weapon will most likely be a low yield tactical nuclear explosive, (possibly three of them?), probably the payload of a hypersonic missile launched from an aircraft (e.g. a MiG 31).</p>
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<p dir="auto">Event 4: nothing to add to what I wrote above</p>
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<p dir="auto">Event 5: likely targets are the NFIU headquarters facilities in Vilnius, Lithuania or Riga, Latvia.</p>
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<p dir="auto">Event 6: nothing to add to what I wrote above</p>
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