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It is somewhat or highly likely that the Russian war on Ukraine will escalate significantly, as soon as 13. December 2022, quite likely drawing NATO into the conflict as a result of the use of tactical nuclear weapons

DISCLAIMER No. 1: Future events are never certainties, they are only ever probabilities. The universe (or more accurately, all the universes that comprise the multiverse) is quantum physical by nature, not deterministic. No matter what anyone tells you, no prediction can ever be 100% certain.

Nevertheless, certain events or series of events have a higher probability of occurring than others. And from a risk analysis standpoint, such as described by the simple formula

Risk = (Probability of Occurrence) × (Severity of Occurrence)

It is important to consider, to be prepared for, and to plan for serious risk events, i.e. events which have a relatively low probability of occurring, but whose impact would be severe if they do occur.

DISCLAIMER No. 2: Let me state categorically I have no inside information on this whatsoever. I keep myself abreast of the Russian war on #Ukraine on a daily basis, via the media and social media, and that’s it. I may know more than the average Westerner about the historical relationship between Ukraine and #Russia, I am acquainted with a few Ukrainians and Russians (the latter of whom are entirely against the war and do not live in Russia), but I have no inside information, I am no kind of hacker, I am not even on Telegram. What I am making is truly “only” a clairvoyant/psychic prediction, based on my gut feelings, and images and impressions which have made their way into my conscious self, informed by what I do know about geography, geopolitics, and military history and science. And I’m sure the Russians, Ukrainians, and #NATO have already envisioned a scenario much like this, so I’m not concerned I’m giving anyone any ideas.

Wait – did you just say psychic? Clairvoyant? Are you crazy? – I’ve posted about my ability/affliction to foresee events in the near future. This has happened to me sporadically and unpredictably me throughout my life. (You can read about it in my blog post here.) Unfortunately I have a good track record. I say unfortunately because I have never foreseen any good event or events, only bad ones (fall of the Berlin Wall? Nope, missed that completely). I guess I am doomed to be a glass-half-full, water-level-going-down kind of person when it comes to this. According to psychological testing, I am not crazy.

Can you put me in touch with my Aunt Adelaide? I do miss her so. – If she is on the internet, or has a postal address, I’d be happy to. If you mean she’s dead, sorry, I can’t. Nobody can. Because she’s dead.

You mean you’re not a member of some strange New Age-y religious sect? No, I’m an atheist.

Will we have a white Christmas? – Unless you live in northern Scandinavia, probably not. I’m a glass-half-empty kind of psychic, and I study anthropogenic climate destruction, remember. Irving Berlin wrote that song poolside, basking in the sun, by the way.

What is the likelihood that any of this will happen? – When this whole scenario first hit me on the evening of 03. December, it had to be quite high, something like 90%. Then I feel the probability dropped throughout last week, which is why I posted nothing about it. But yesterday (10. December) it felt like it was really likely again, up around 85%. This morning, I felt it was down again, maybe 65%, but as of this writing (11. December, 18:00 UTC) I feel it is back up to 70% and climbing again. And if it doesn’t happen on this timetable, it very well could, quite soon.

And what if none of this happens? – I absolutely 100% hope I am wrong and come out looking overly alarmist, pessimistic, and rather silly. But then, I also hope this is the case when it comes to what I foresee about the human-caused climate disaster, species extinction, and habitat destruction.

Alright, I suppose it’s time you got on with it.

The events from mid-December 2022 through mid-January 2023

Event 1 – Russian “false flag” attack in southeastern Ukraine, most likely #Melitopol

When? – as soon as 13. December 2022, no later than 22. December 2022

What? – most likely a kind of “dirty bomb”, consisting of radioactive material, and probably chemical warfare agents as well

How? – easy. The Russians have occupied Melitopol since March 2022. They plant the weapon themselves.

Won’t Russian troops and collaborators be killed or injured? – of course. That’s the point of a false flag operation.

Why? - To serve as a pretext for carrying out Event 2 and Event 3.

Event 2: Massive conventional Russian attacks on #Kharkiv, and (to a lesser extent) #Kherson

When? – more or less immediately after Event 1 (+12 hours to +24 hours)

What? – a combination of conventional weapons, including missiles, drones, and artillery

How? – no problem, these locations are in easy reach of Russian forces

Why? – a maskirovka (screen, deception, cover) to conceal Event 3, the “main event”

Event 3: Russian tactical nuclear attack on far northwestern Ukraine, most likely #Lutsk

When? – 1 to 2 days after Event 2

What? – tactical nuclear weapon(s) attack

How? – most likely one to three air-launched (MiG-31 or Tu-95?) hypersonic missiles, capable of Mach 5 – Mach 10 airspeeds

Why? – Vladimir Putin is getting desperate. There have already been massive Russian casualties in their war on Ukraine; according to Ukrainian estimates and the BBC, Russia has already lost 100,000+ troops in the war. Putin feels backed into a corner. He sees escalation as his only option to reinforce his power and reputation within Russia. He wants to draw NATO into the conflict, but make it appear he had no choice in the matter. This also has the added “benefit” of breaking the “nuclear taboo”, and ostensibly will provide his generals with more options on the battlefield. Hitting far northwestern Ukraine would be a figurative shot over NATOs bow. And Putin would love to ruin Christmas and New Years (Orthodox Christmas is 07. January, so he wouldn’t be ruining that.) On top of all this, Putin is ill, probably very, terminally ill, and sees himself as having nothing to lose.

Event 4: Ukrainian attack on #Ulyanovsk

When? – 0.5 to 1 day after Event 3

What? – this is really hard to say. My gut says a single tactical nuclear weapon, but Ukraine is not supposed to have these.

How? – Good question. Perhaps a system the Ukrainians have built themselves (more likely), or purchased somewhere (less likely). The Ukrainian strikes inside Russia earlier this month may have been testing such a system or systems.

Why? – Retaliation for the Russian strike on Lutsk. The most likely target is the 31st Air Assault Brigade base in the northern part of the city.

Event 5: Russian tactical nuclear attack on #Lithuania or #Latvia (probably on a NATO facility)

When? – 2 to 3 days after Event 4

What? – tactical nuclear weapon attack

How? – same as Event 3

Why? – Putin will claim Ukraine’s attack on Ulyanovsk (Event 4) was done with technology, intelligence, and weaponry supplied by NATO, thus NATO has de facto already declared war on Russia.

Did NATO really supply Ukraine with the technology to attack Ulyanovsk? – No. But that won’t matter.

Event 6: NATO conventional attack on Kaliningrad

When? – 4 to 7 days after Event 5, but the timeframe is pretty fuzzy

What? – massive conventional strikes on Russian military facilities in Kaliningrad

How? – combined air and naval forces

Why? – NATO fulfills the obligation of its charter, i.e. an attack on any member state is an attack on all of NATO, and still avoids ratcheting up the conflict to a level no one wants to go to.

What happens next? – I have no idea.

What is a “false flag” attack?

It’s when you attack your own forces or people and claim your enemy did it. You do this to start a war you want to start, or escalate a war you want to escalate. One infamous false flag attack was the destruction of the battleship Maine in Havana harbour which precipitated the Spanish-American War (1898), and in which 260 sailors were killed. (The USS Maine was an aging, essentially obsolete vessel when the attack occurred.) The United States blamed Spain, blanketed the media with propaganda, and the war began. The Spanish wanted to avoid war with the United States at all costs. There was no benefit for them to carry out such an attack. The beneficiaries of the war were Wall Street and wealthy Cuban families. The Gulf of Tonkin “incident” (1964), in which North Vietnamese torpedo boats supposedly attacked the American reconnaissance vessel (destroyer) USS Maddox, was not really a false flag attack, because the incident never actually happened at all. Still, it provided the pretext for the US to enter the Vietnam war (or rather take it over from the French). Likewise, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (1941) was not a false flag attack, because the Japanese really did attack. But the US knew at least two weeks, and probably much earlier, that the attack was going to happen (they were reading all of the Japanese message traffic). This is why all of the US aircraft carriers, and other modern ships were safely away when the attack happened, and only aging, soon-to-be mothballed ships were left behind. Nonetheless, the American government felt it was necessary to allow the attack to happen, in order to bring the US into the war on the side of the British. Over 2000 American lives were “sacrificed for the greater good”. No doubt, Putin would see a Russian false flag attack in the same light.

Some Details

Event 1: Russian “false flag” attack in southeastern Ukraine, most likely #Melitopol, in #Zaporizhzia Oblast. The weapon most likely will be a kind of “dirty bomb”, consisting of radioactive material, and probably chemical warfare agents as well. Note that a “dirty bomb” is not a nuclear weapon, but rather a weapon containing radioactive and possibly other material that is a “radiological dispersal device” that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives. (I have not read about such a device designed to contain chemical warfare agents, but I have not researched the topic very much, either. Still, I have the feeling it will, in order to make it even “dirtier”.)

My very first impression was 18. December 2022, next most likely date 22. December, with an outside chance of 17. December. As of yesterday, I’ve had a stronger feeling it could be as soon as 14. December, maybe even very late on 13. December. The uncertainty arises because it is dependent on wind and weather conditions, i.e. it would have to happen on a day with easterly winds (perhaps southeasterly) in the lower and 500 mB levels of the atmosphere, to ensure fallout and contamination only spreads in Ukrainian territory. It would not happen when the weather is rainy or snowy and/or when a low pressure system is moving through the area. This is to ensure that contamination does not settle only in the immediate area of the detonation, and also to ensure it spreads further into Ukraine as much as possible.

Event 2: Massive conventional attack by Russia on #Kharkiv (northeast Ukraine), and to a lesser extent #Kherson (southeast Ukraine), in “retaliation” for Event 1. This will follow Event 1 more or less immediately.

Event 3: Russian missile attack on far northwestern Ukraine, most likely Lutsk, Volyn Oblast. The weapon will most likely be a low yield tactical nuclear explosive, (possibly three of them?), probably the payload of a hypersonic missile launched from an aircraft (e.g. a MiG 31).

Event 4: nothing to add to what I wrote above

Event 5: likely targets are the NFIU headquarters facilities in Vilnius, Lithuania or Riga, Latvia.

Event 6: nothing to add to what I wrote above